• Oil and Fiscal Policy Regimes 

      Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane; Casarin, Roberto; Lorusso, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;11, Working paper, 2020-12-29)
      We analyse fiscal policy responses in oil rich countries by developing a Bayesian regime-switching panel country analysis. We use parameter restrictions to identify procyclical and countercyclical fiscal policy regimes ...
    • Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard H. (CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a regime-switching structural model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in ...
    • Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard H.; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;No. 6/2017, Working paper, 2017-11)
      We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic insta- bility. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of ...
    • Oil and the Stock Market Revisited: A mixed functional VAR approach 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Chang, Yoosoon; Cross, Jamie L. (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2023, Working paper, 2023-03-13)
      This paper proposes a new mixed vector autoregression (MVAR) model to examine the relationship between aggregate time series and functional variables in a multivariate setting. The model facilitates a re examination of the ...
    • Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time Out-of Sample Examination 

      Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rothman, Philip (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      We study the real-time predictive content of crude oil prices for US real GDP growth through a pseudo out-of-sample (OOS) forecasting exercise. Comparing our benchmark model "without oil" against alternatives "with oil," ...
    • Oil price density forecasts: Exploring the linkages with stock markets 

      Lombardi, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      In the recent years several commentators hinted at an increase of the correlation between equity and commodity prices, and blamed investment in commodity-related products for this. First, this paper investigates such ...
    • Oil Prices Uncertainty, Endogenous Regime Switching, and Inflation Anchoring 

      Chang, Yoosoon; Herrera, Ana María; Pesavento, Elena (CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2023, Working paper, 2023-02-27)
      Using a novel approach to model regime switching with dynamic feedback and interactions, we extract latent mean and volatility factors in oil price changes. We illustrate how the volatility factor constitutes a useful ...
    • Oil Windfalls and Regional Economic Performance in Russia 

      Skretting, Julia (CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2022, Working paper, 2022-08-11)
      I construct a novel dataset to investigate the effects of oil income in regions of Russia. My data combines regional level data on oil endowments and a wide range of economic series for 85 geographical regions of Russia. ...
    • Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP 

      Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rothman, Philip (CAMP Working Papers Series;10/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We carry out a pseudo out-of-sample density forecasting study for U.S. GDP with an autoregressive benchmark and alternatives to the benchmark than include both oil prices and stochastic volatility. The alternatives to the ...
    • On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach 

      Cross, Jamie L.; Hou, Chenghan; Nguyen, Bao H. (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper;11/2018, Working paper, 2018)
      We investigate the relationship between world oil markets and China's macroeconomic performance over the past two decades. Our analysis starts by proposing a simple method for disentangling real economic activity stemming ...
    • On the use of machine learning for causal inference in climate economics 

      Hovdahl, Isabel (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper;05/2019, Working paper, 2019-06)
      One of the most important research questions in climate economics is the relationship between temperatures and human mortality. This paper develops a procedure that enables the use of machine learning for estimating the ...
    • OPEC's crude game: The supply curve in a dynamic, strategic environment 

      Hvinden, Even Comfort (CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2019, Working paper, 2019-11)
      The market behavior nationalized oil companies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is starkly time-varying. I rationalize OPEC's behavior in an infinitely repeated game of Cournot competition with ...
    • OPEC’s Crude Game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets 

      Gundersen, Thomas Størdal; Hvinden, Even Soltvedt (CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2021, Working paper, 2021-01-25)
      We develop a model of oligopolistic competition under imperfect monitoring and dynamic observable demand. Efficient symmetric equilibria feature disciplined cooperative regimes interrupted by rare but severe price wars. ...
    • Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations 

      Pettenuzzo, Davide; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;9/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We extend the density combination approach of Billio et al. (2013) to feature combination weights that depend on the past forecasting performance of the individual models entering the combination through a utility-based ...
    • Petro Populism 

      Matsen, Egil; Natvik, Gisle J.; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      We aim to explain petro populism|the excessive use of oil revenues to buy political support. To reap the full gains of natural resource income politicians need to remain in office over time. Hence, even a rent-seeking ...
    • Petro Rents, Political Institutions, and Hidden Wealth: Evidence from Bank Deposits in Tax Havens 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Johannesen, Niels; Lassen, David Dreyer; Paltseva, Elena (CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Do political institutions limit rent-seeking by politicians? To address this question, we study the transformation of petroleum rents into hidden wealth using unique data on bank deposits in tax havens. We find that ...
    • Predicting the Volatility of Cryptocurrency Time–Series 

      Catania, Leopoldo; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;3, Working paper, 2018-02)
      Cryptocurrencies have recently gained a lot of interest from investors, central banks and governments worldwide. The lack of any form of political regu- lation and their market far from being “efficient”, require new forms ...
    • The Price Responsiveness of Shale Producers: Evidence From Micro Data 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gundersen, Thomas S. (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2021, Working paper, 2021-09-11)
      Shale oil producers respond positively and significantly to favourable oil price signals. This finding is established using a novel proprietary data set consisting of more than 200,000 shale wells across ten U.S. states ...
    • Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis 

      Korobilis, Dimitris; Schröder, Maximilian (CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2023, Working paper, 2023-08-03)
      This paper extends quantile factor analysis to a probabilistic variant that incorporates regularization and computationally efficient variational approximations. By means of synthetic and real data experiments it is ...
    • Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting 

      Iacopini, Matteo; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca (CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2020, Working paper, 2020-09-01)
      This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, ...