Browsing Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP) by Title
Now showing items 27-46 of 134
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Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy?
(CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2016, Working paper, 2016)Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze ... -
Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation
(CAMP Working Paper Series;9/2013, Working paper, 2013)Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? According to Lubik and Schorfheide (2007) who estimate structural general equilibrium models with monetary policy rules, the answer is "Yes, some do". However, their ... -
Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation of Commodity Exporters and Importers
(CAMP Working Paper Series;12/2020, Working paper, 2021-01-25)We analyse whether central banks in small open commodity exporting and importing countries respond to exchange rate movements, taking into consideration that there may be structural changes in parameters and volatility ... -
Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?
(CAMAR Working Paper Series;2/2010, Working paper, 2010)We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. We recursively evaluate quasi out-of-sample forecasts from a large suite of models from 1999 to 2009. The performance of the models are then ... -
Does oil promote or prevent coups?
(CAMP Working Papers Series;7/2014, Working paper, 2014)A large literature investigates the relation between oil and conflict, yet no empirical study has found any link between oil and coups d’´etat. Using a new data set on oil production separated into onshore and offshore ... -
Does oil promote or prevent coups?
(CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2014, Working paper, 2014)A large literature investigates the relation between oil and conflict, yet no empirical study has found any link between oil and coups d’´etat. Using a new data set on oil production separated into onshore and offshore ... -
Dominant Drivers of National Inflation
(CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2022, Working paper, 2022-12-29)For western economies a long-forgotten phenomenon is on the horizon: rising inflation rates. We propose a novel approach christened D2ML to identify drivers of national inflation. D2ML combines machine learning for model ... -
The Drivers of Emission Reductions in the European Carbon Market
(CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2023, Working paper, 2023-09-17)This paper studies the drivers of emission reductions in the carbon market of the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) since its inception in 2005. We introduce a novel empirical framework that facilitates the ... -
Dutch Disease Dynamics Reconsidered
(CAMP Working Paper Series;4, Working paper, 2018-02)In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the ... -
The Economic Consequences of Effective Carbon Taxes
(CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2023, Working paper, 2023-01)This paper studies the economic consequences of carbon taxes at the macroeconomic and sectoral level. I propose a novel monthly measure of effective carbon tax rates, which, in contrast to the measures used by the existing ... -
The effect of rising energy prices amid geopolitical developments and supply disruptions
(CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2022, Working paper, 2022-12)Much research has documented how changes in supply and demand cause commodity price fluctuations, with subsequent effects on the global economy. This paper puts the recent energy price surge in perspective amid geopolitical ... -
Efficient Perturbation Methods for Solving Regime-Switching DSGE Models
(CAMP Working Papers Series;10/2014, Working paper, 2014)In an environment where economic structures break, variances change, distributions shift, conventional policies weaken and past events tend to reoccur, economic agents have to form expectations over different regimes. ... -
Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies
(CAMP Working Paper Series;13/2023, Working paper, 2023-10-21)We analyse fiscal policy in resource-rich economies using a novel Bayesian regime-switching panel model. The identified regimes capture pro- or countercyclical fiscal behaviour, while the switches between the regimes have ... -
Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Financial Time Series
(CAMP Working Paper Series;5, Working paper, 2018-03)This paper studies the predictability of cryptocurrencies time series. We compare several alternative univariate and multivariate models in point and density forecasting of four of the most capitalized series: Bitcoin, ... -
Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series;11/2019, Working paper, 2019-12)This paper focuses on forecasting quarterly energy prices of commodities, such as oil, gas and coal, using the Global VAR dataset proposed by Mohaddes and Raissi (2018). This dataset includes a number of potentially ... -
Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different
(CAMP Working Papers Series;1/2015, Working paper, 2015)A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. ... -
Forecasting oil and gas Prices: A Model Combination Approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2024, Working paper, 2024-12-31)This paper advances energy price forecasting by extending state-of-the-art econometric models for oil markets to address the distinct characteristics of fragmented natural gas markets. Using a forecast combination framework, ... -
Foreign shocks
(CAMP Working Papers Series;11/2015, Working paper, 2015)How and to what extent are small open economies affected by international shocks? I develop and estimate a medium scale DSGE model that addresses both questions. The model incorporates i) international markets for firm-to-firm ... -
Foreign Shocks in an Estimated Multi-Sector Model
(CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2014, Working paper, 2014)How are macroeconomic fluctuations in open economies affected by international business cycles? To shed some light on this question, I develop and estimate a medium scale DSGE model for a small open economy. The model ... -
Global and regional business cycles: Shocks and propagations
(CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2013, Working paper, 2014-06-24)We study the synchronization of real and nominal variables across four dfferent regions of the world, Asia, Europe, North and South America, covering 32 different countries. Employing a FAVAR framework, we distinguish ...