Blar i Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP) på tittel
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Sectorial interdependence and business cycle synchronization in small open economies
(CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)Existing DSGE models are not able to reproduce the observed influence of international business cycles on small open economies. We construct a two-sector New Keynesian model to address this puzzle. The set-up takes into ... -
Should Developing Countries Establish Petroleum Funds?
(CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2017, Working paper, 2017)Many natural-resource-abundant countries have established petroleum funds as part of their strategy to manage their resource wealth. This paper examines reasons that such funds may be established, discusses how these funds ... -
Sigma Point Filters For Dynamic Nonlinear Regime Switching Models
(CAMP Working Papers Series;4/2015, Working paper, 2015)In this paper we take three well known Sigma Point Filters, namely the Unscented Kalman Filter, the Divided Difference Filter, and the Cubature Kalman Filter, and extend them to allow for a very general class of dynamic ... -
Supply Flexibility in the Shale Patch: Evidence from North Dakota
(CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2017, Working paper, 2017)We analyse if output exibility in oil production depends on the extraction technology. In particular, we ask to what extent shale oil producers respond to price incentives by changing completion of new wells as well as oil ... -
Supply flexibility in the shale patch: Facts, no fiction
(CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2019, Working paper, 2019-11-18)In two recent papers, Kilian and Zhou (2019) and Kilian (2019) have criticized Bjørnland, Nordvik, and Rohrer (2017), arguing that our finding of a large price elasticity of output for shale producers is not credible. We ... -
The Fiscal Incentive of GHG Cap and Trade: Permits May Be Too Cheap and Developed Countries May Abate Too Little
(CAMP Working Papers Series;9/2014, Working paper, 2014)The theoretical justification for a greenhouse gas (GHG) cap and trade system is that participants will trade emission permits until their marginal cost of abatement equals the equilibrium price of emission permits. However, ... -
The fiscal incentive of GHG cap and trade: Permits may be too cheap and developed countries may abate too little
(Working paper, 2014)The theoretical justification for a greenhouse gas (GHG) cap and trade system is that participants will trade emission permits until their marginal cost of abatement equals the equilibrium price of emission permits. ... -
The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price
(CAMP Working Paper Series;7, Working paper, 2018-04)I examine the role of the U.S. shale oil boom in driving global oil prices. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that identifies separate oil supply shocks for the U.S. and OPEC, I find that U.S. supply ... -
The Political Economy of Public Income Volatility: With an Application to the Resource Curse
(CAMP Working Papers Series;3/2015, Working paper, 2015)We develop a model of the political consequences of public income volatility. As is standard, political incentives create inefficient policies, but we show that making income uncertain creates specific new effects. Future ... -
The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects
(CAMP Working Paper Series Paper No. 8/2018;, Working paper, 2018-10-16)We analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks in the U.S. economy has changed as a result of the shale oil boom. To do so we allow for spillovers at the state level, as well as aggregate country level effects. We ... -
The Value of News
(CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2015, Working paper, 2015)We decompose a major business newspaper according to the topics it writes about, and show that the topics have predictive power for key economic variables and, especially noteworthy, for asset prices. Unexpected ... -
The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence
(CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2011, Working paper, 2011)This paper bridges the new open economy factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) studies with the recent findings in the business cycle synchronization literature emphasizing the importance of regional factors. That is, we estimate ... -
Time-Varying Trend Models for Forecasting Inflation in Australia
(CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2020, Working paper, 2020-11-18)We investigate whether a class of trend models with various error term structures can improve upon the forecast performance of commonly used time series models when forecasting CPI inflation in Australia. The main result ... -
Uncertainty and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
(CAMP Working Paper Series;12/2023, Working paper, 2023-10-13)We present a new stylized fact about the link between uncertainty and the term structure of interest rates: Unexpectedly heightened uncertainty elicits a lower, steeper, and flatter yield curve. This result is established ... -
Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts
(CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2015, Working paper, 2015)This paper shows entropic tilting to be a flexible and powerful tool for combining mediumterm forecasts from BVARs with short-term forecasts from other sources (nowcasts from either surveys or other models). Tilting ... -
Voting When the Stakes Are High
(CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2013, Working paper, 2013)Most theories of voter behavior predict that electoral participation will be higher in elections where more is at stake. We test this prediction by studying how participation is affected by exogenous variation in local ... -
What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies
(CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2012, Working paper, 2012)We analyze the importance of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil over the last two decades. Using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows us to ... -
Where do they care? The ECB in the media and inflation expectations
(CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2023, Working paper, 2023-05-10)This paper examines how news coverage of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects consumer inflation expectations in the four largest euro area countries. Utilizing a unique dataset of multilingual European news articles, ... -
Why Do Voters Dismantle Checks and Balances? Extensions and Robustness. (Online appendix)
(CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2013, Working paper, 2013)In this online appendix we extend the basic model in the paper in several directions, discuss the robustness of the results, and moreover what new mechanisms our extensions implies as compared to the ones in the basic model. -
Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles
(CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2016, Working paper, 2016)In this paper I construct a daily business cycle index based on quarterly GDP and textual information contained in a daily business newspaper. The newspaper data is decomposed into time series representing newspaper topics ...