BI Research Centre's Series: Nye registreringer
Viser treff 41-60 av 331
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Macroeconomic Forecasting with Large Stochastic Volatility in Mean VARs
(CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2021, Working paper, 2021-06-15)Vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility in both the conditional mean and variance are commonly used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks. Despite their popularity, intensive computational ... -
Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil
(CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2021, Working paper, 2021-06-01)We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier ... -
Facilitating integration and maintaining autonomy: The role of managerial action and interaction in post-acquisition capability transfer
(Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)Through acquisitions, firms can access resources and capabilities they cannot develop on their own. Post-acquisition, a key managerial challenge is balancing the need for integration, to transfer capabilities, with the ... -
Nordic Mission Possible: An Assessment of Covid-19’s Impact on the Nordic Audiovisual Industry and the Effectiveness of Government and Industry Measures
(Research report, 2021)We have studied the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the restrictive and mitigating government and industry measures it has triggered for the audiovisual industry in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and ... -
The Inefficient Combination: Competitive Markets, Free Entry, and Democracy
(CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2021, Working paper, 2021-01-27)We show that under fairly general conditions, the combination of (i) competitive markets, (ii) free entry, and (iii) democracy is inconsistent with allocative efficiency. This fundamental impossibility result, which has ... -
Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation of Commodity Exporters and Importers
(CAMP Working Paper Series;12/2020, Working paper, 2021-01-25)We analyse whether central banks in small open commodity exporting and importing countries respond to exchange rate movements, taking into consideration that there may be structural changes in parameters and volatility ... -
OPEC’s Crude Game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets
(CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2021, Working paper, 2021-01-25)We develop a model of oligopolistic competition under imperfect monitoring and dynamic observable demand. Efficient symmetric equilibria feature disciplined cooperative regimes interrupted by rare but severe price wars. ... -
Oil and Fiscal Policy Regimes
(CAMP Working Paper Series;11, Working paper, 2020-12-29)We analyse fiscal policy responses in oil rich countries by developing a Bayesian regime-switching panel country analysis. We use parameter restrictions to identify procyclical and countercyclical fiscal policy regimes ... -
Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies
(CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2020, Working paper, 2020-12-03)The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We ... -
Time-Varying Trend Models for Forecasting Inflation in Australia
(CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2020, Working paper, 2020-11-18)We investigate whether a class of trend models with various error term structures can improve upon the forecast performance of commonly used time series models when forecasting CPI inflation in Australia. The main result ... -
News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
(CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2020, Working paper, 2020-10-08)Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer ... -
Behavioral changes and policy effects during Covid-19
(CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2020, Working paper, 2020-09-17)We exploit unique Norwegian day-by-day transaction and bid-by-bid auction data in order to examine how market participants reacted to the spreading news of Covid-19 in early March 2020, the lock-down on March 12, and the ... -
Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting
(CAMP Working Paper Series;06/2020, Working paper, 2020-09-01)This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, ... -
Macroeconomics in the time of the Corona
(CAMP Working Paper Series;04/2020, Working paper, 2020-06)For a developed market economies, the corona crisis is a new type of crisis, but this crisis has parallels to economies at other times, and to crises at other places. We discuss some mechanisms from the traditional macro ... -
Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Electricity Prices
(CAMP Working Paper Series;05/2020, Working paper, 2020-07-02)We study the importance of time-varying volatility in modelling hourly electricity prices when fundamental drivers are included in the estimation. This allows us to contribute to the literature of large Bayesian VARs by ... -
Inflation expectations and the pass-through of oil prices
(CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2020, Working paper, 2020-06-25)Do inflation expectations and the associated pass-though of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global market for crude oil? We answer this question with a novel structural vector ... -
The Impact of Monetary Policy on Leading Variables for Financial Stability in Norway
(CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2020, Working paper, 2020-03)We search for leading determinants of financial instability in Norway using a signaling approach, and examine how these respond to a monetary policy shock with the use of structural VAR models. We find that the wholesale ... -
Deadly Variation: The Effect of Temperature Variability on Mortality
(CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2020, Working paper, 2020-02-02)While economists have focused on the effect of mean temperatures on mortality, climate scientists have emphasized that global warming might not only lead to an increase in mean temperatures, but can potentially also affect ... -
Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach
(CAMP Working Paper Series;11/2019, Working paper, 2019-12)This paper focuses on forecasting quarterly energy prices of commodities, such as oil, gas and coal, using the Global VAR dataset proposed by Mohaddes and Raissi (2018). This dataset includes a number of potentially ... -
OPEC's crude game: The supply curve in a dynamic, strategic environment
(CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2019, Working paper, 2019-11)The market behavior nationalized oil companies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is starkly time-varying. I rationalize OPEC's behavior in an infinitely repeated game of Cournot competition with ...