Now showing items 214-233 of 329

    • Nowcasting using news topics Big Data versus big bank 

      Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      The agents in the economy use a plethora of high frequency information, including news media, to guide their actions and thereby shape aggregate economic fluctuations. Traditional nowcasting approches have to a relatively ...
    • Oil and Civil Conflict: On and Off (Shore) 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Nordvik, Frode Martin; Tesei, Andrea (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2017, Working paper, 2017)
      We reconsider the relationship between oil and conflict, focusing on the location of oil resources. In a panel of 132 countries over the period 1962-2009, we show that oil windfalls increase the probability of conflict in ...
    • Oil and Fiscal Policy Regimes 

      Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane; Casarin, Roberto; Lorusso, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;11, Working paper, 2020-12-29)
      We analyse fiscal policy responses in oil rich countries by developing a Bayesian regime-switching panel country analysis. We use parameter restrictions to identify procyclical and countercyclical fiscal policy regimes ...
    • Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard H. (CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a regime-switching structural model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in ...
    • Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard H.; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;No. 6/2017, Working paper, 2017-11)
      We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic insta- bility. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of ...
    • Oil and the Stock Market Revisited: A mixed functional VAR approach 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Chang, Yoosoon; Cross, Jamie L. (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2023, Working paper, 2023-03-13)
      This paper proposes a new mixed vector autoregression (MVAR) model to examine the relationship between aggregate time series and functional variables in a multivariate setting. The model facilitates a re examination of the ...
    • Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time Out-of Sample Examination 

      Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rothman, Philip (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      We study the real-time predictive content of crude oil prices for US real GDP growth through a pseudo out-of-sample (OOS) forecasting exercise. Comparing our benchmark model "without oil" against alternatives "with oil," ...
    • Oil price density forecasts: Exploring the linkages with stock markets 

      Lombardi, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      In the recent years several commentators hinted at an increase of the correlation between equity and commodity prices, and blamed investment in commodity-related products for this. First, this paper investigates such ...
    • Oil Prices Uncertainty, Endogenous Regime Switching, and Inflation Anchoring 

      Chang, Yoosoon; Herrera, Ana María; Pesavento, Elena (CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2023, Working paper, 2023-02-27)
      Using a novel approach to model regime switching with dynamic feedback and interactions, we extract latent mean and volatility factors in oil price changes. We illustrate how the volatility factor constitutes a useful ...
    • Oil Windfalls and Regional Economic Performance in Russia 

      Skretting, Julia (CAMP Working Paper Series;02/2022, Working paper, 2022-08-11)
      I construct a novel dataset to investigate the effects of oil income in regions of Russia. My data combines regional level data on oil endowments and a wide range of economic series for 85 geographical regions of Russia. ...
    • Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP 

      Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rothman, Philip (CAMP Working Papers Series;10/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We carry out a pseudo out-of-sample density forecasting study for U.S. GDP with an autoregressive benchmark and alternatives to the benchmark than include both oil prices and stochastic volatility. The alternatives to the ...
    • Om finanskrisen i USA 

      Isachsen, Arne Jon (CME Working paper series;6/2008, Working paper, 2008)
      Arbeidsnotatet søker å gi et bilde av hva som har skjedd i det amerikanske finansmarkedet siden krisen startet tidlig i august 2007.
    • Om nye virkemidler i pengepolitikken : avgrensning mellom pengepolitikken og finanspolitikken 

      Alstadheim, Ragna (CME Working paper series;3/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      Under finanskrisen innførte mange sentralbanker nye typer utlån og kjøpte verdipapirer de vanligvis ikke handler i. Bruk av slike nye virkemidler og utvidet volum på tradisjonelle instrumenter ga større sentralbankbalanser. ...
    • Om spekulasjon i valutamarkedet 

      Isachsen, Arne Jon (CME Working Paper Series;3/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      Investeringer i aksjer og obligasjoner kan påregnes å gi positiv avkastning over tid. Aksjekurser stiger, og tidvis betales det utbytte. Obligasjoner gir jevnlige renteutbetalinger. Penger satt av for spekulasjon i ...
    • On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach 

      Cross, Jamie L.; Hou, Chenghan; Nguyen, Bao H. (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper;11/2018, Working paper, 2018)
      We investigate the relationship between world oil markets and China's macroeconomic performance over the past two decades. Our analysis starts by proposing a simple method for disentangling real economic activity stemming ...
    • On the use of machine learning for causal inference in climate economics 

      Hovdahl, Isabel (CAMP Working Paper Series Paper;05/2019, Working paper, 2019-06)
      One of the most important research questions in climate economics is the relationship between temperatures and human mortality. This paper develops a procedure that enables the use of machine learning for estimating the ...
    • Ongoing quest for QWERTY 

      Heggedal, Tom-Reiel; Helland, Leif (CREAM Publications;1/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      First, we replicate the remarkable result of Hossain & Morgan (AER 2009), in which subjects in an experimental market tip almost perfectly to the superior platform even if an inferior platform enjoys initial monopoly. Next, ...
    • OPEC's crude game: The supply curve in a dynamic, strategic environment 

      Hvinden, Even Comfort (CAMP Working Paper Series;10/2019, Working paper, 2019-11)
      The market behavior nationalized oil companies in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is starkly time-varying. I rationalize OPEC's behavior in an infinitely repeated game of Cournot competition with ...
    • OPEC’s Crude Game: Strategic Competition and Regime-switching in Global Oil Markets 

      Gundersen, Thomas Størdal; Hvinden, Even Soltvedt (CAMP Working Paper Series;01/2021, Working paper, 2021-01-25)
      We develop a model of oligopolistic competition under imperfect monitoring and dynamic observable demand. Efficient symmetric equilibria feature disciplined cooperative regimes interrupted by rare but severe price wars. ...
    • Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations 

      Pettenuzzo, Davide; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;9/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We extend the density combination approach of Billio et al. (2013) to feature combination weights that depend on the past forecasting performance of the individual models entering the combination through a utility-based ...