• Asset Returns, News Topics, and Media Effects 

      Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021)
      We decompose the textual data in a daily Norwegian business newspaper into news topics and investigate their predictive and causal role for asset prices. Our findings suggest that news published through the mass media has ...
    • Do Central Banks Respond Timely to Developments in the Global Economy? 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zahiri, Sepideh Khayati (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2019)
      Our analysis suggests; they do not! We arrive at this conclusion by showing that revisions to the published interest rate path projections from the central banks in New Zealand, Norway and Sweden can be predicted by timely ...
    • Dutch disease dynamics reconsidered 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Torvik, Ragnar (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2019)
      In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the ...
    • Narrative Monetary Policy Surprises and the Media 

      Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; ter Ellen, Saskia (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      This paper should not be reported as representing the views of Norges Bank. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Norges Bank. Helene Olsen provided valuable research assistance, ...
    • News media versus FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting 

      Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021)
      Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer ...
    • News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities 

      Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zhulanova, Julia (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)
      Using a large news corpus and machine learning algorithms we investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households, and conclude that the news topics media report on are good predictors ...
    • Nowcasting GDP in real time: a density combination approach 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2014)
      In this paper, we use U.S. real-time data to produce combined density nowcasts of quarterly GDP growth, using a system of three commonly used model classes. We update the density nowcast for every new data release ...