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dc.contributor.authorAastveit, Knut Are
dc.contributor.authorGerdrup, Karsten R.
dc.contributor.authorJore, Anne Sofie
dc.contributor.authorThorsrud, Leif Anders
dc.date.accessioned2014-06-13T12:33:04Z
dc.date.available2014-06-13T12:33:04Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Business and Economic Statistics, 32(2014)1: 48-68nb_NO
dc.identifier.issn1537-2707
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/196448
dc.descriptionThis is the authors’ accepted and refereed manuscript to the article. Publisher's webpage: www.tandfonline.com Availability of author's version is delayed until 18 months after first online publication. Unavailable until 2015-06-30. Publisher's policynb_NO
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we use U.S. real-time data to produce combined density nowcasts of quarterly GDP growth, using a system of three commonly used model classes. We update the density nowcast for every new data release throughout the quarter, and highlight the importance of new information for nowcasting. Our results show that the logarithmic score of the predictive densities for U.S. GDP growth increase almost monotonically, as new information arrives during the quarter. While the ranking of the model classes changes during the quarter, the combined density nowcasts always perform well relative to the model classes in terms of both logarithmic scores and calibration tests. The density combination approach is superior to a simple model selection strategy and also performs better in terms of point forecast evaluation than standard point forecast combinations.nb_NO
dc.language.isoengnb_NO
dc.publisherTaylor & Francisnb_NO
dc.subjectDensity combinationnb_NO
dc.subjectForecast densitiesnb_NO
dc.subjectForecast evaluationnb_NO
dc.subjectMonetary policynb_NO
dc.subjectNowcastingnb_NO
dc.subjectReal-time datanb_NO
dc.titleNowcasting GDP in real time: a density combination approachnb_NO
dc.typeJournal articlenb_NO
dc.typePeer reviewednb_NO
dc.source.pagenumber46-68nb_NO
dc.source.volume32nb_NO
dc.source.journalJournal of Business and Economic Statisticsnb_NO
dc.source.issue1nb_NO
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/07350015.2013.844155
dc.description.localcode2, Forfatterversjonnb_NO


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