This article quantifies the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe (euro area). We do so by first constructing daily business cycle indexes computed on the basis of the ...

We investigate the impact of macro-related uncertainty on bank lending in Norway. We show that an increase in general macroeconomic uncertainty reduces bank lending. Importantly, however, we show that this effect is largely ...

Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer ...

We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a regime-switching structural model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in ...

We decompose a major business newspaper according to the topics it writes about, and show that the topics have predictive power for key economic variables and, especially noteworthy, for asset prices. Unexpected ...