Blar i BI Open på forfatter "Thorsrud, Leif Anders"
-
News media versus FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Peer reviewed; Journal article, 2021)Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer ... -
News media vs. FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2020, Working paper, 2020-10-08)Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer ... -
News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities
Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zhulanova, Julia (CAMP Working Paper Series;03/2019, Working paper, 2019-04-23)We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a news-topic-based approach we show that news types the media choose to report on, e.g., (Internet) technology, health, ... -
News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities
Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zhulanova, Julia (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2020)Using a large news corpus and machine learning algorithms we investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households, and conclude that the news topics media report on are good predictors ... -
Nowcasting GDP in real time: a density combination approach
Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2014)In this paper, we use U.S. real-time data to produce combined density nowcasts of quarterly GDP growth, using a system of three commonly used model classes. We update the density nowcast for every new data release ... -
Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach
Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2011, Working paper, 2011)In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, ... -
Nowcasting using news topics Big Data versus big bank
Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2016, Working paper, 2016)The agents in the economy use a plethora of high frequency information, including news media, to guide their actions and thereby shape aggregate economic fluctuations. Traditional nowcasting approches have to a relatively ... -
Ringvirkninger: Norsk økonomi og olje
Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CME Working Papers;7/2013, Working paper, 2013)Norsk økonomi går godt. En viktig grunn til dette er petroleumsnæringens bidrag til økt produktivitet i resten av økonomien. Men flere varsellamper blinker. Den senere tid har produktivitetsveksten vært avtagende. Høyere ... -
Risky news and credit market sentiment
Labonne, Paul; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;14/2023, Working paper, 2023-12-14)The nonlinear nexus between financial conditions indicators and the conditional distribution of GDP growth has recently been challenged. We show how one can use textual economic news combined with a shallow Neural Network ... -
The Value of News
Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2015, Working paper, 2015)We decompose a major business newspaper according to the topics it writes about, and show that the topics have predictive power for key economic variables and, especially noteworthy, for asset prices. Unexpected ... -
The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence
Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2011, Working paper, 2011)This paper bridges the new open economy factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) studies with the recent findings in the business cycle synchronization literature emphasizing the importance of regional factors. That is, we estimate ... -
What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies
Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2012, Working paper, 2012)We analyze the importance of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil over the last two decades. Using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows us to ... -
Words are the new numbers: A newsy coincident index of business cycles
Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2016, Working paper, 2016)In this paper I construct a daily business cycle index based on quarterly GDP and textual information contained in a daily business newspaper. The newspaper data is decomposed into time series representing newspaper topics ...