• Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not typically account for productiv- ity spillovers between the booming energy sector and non-oil sectors. This study identifies and quantifies these spillovers using a Bayesian ...
    • Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch Disease in Two-Speed Economies 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not account for productivity spillovers between the booming resource sector and other domestic sectors. We put forward a simple theory model that allows for such spillovers. ...
    • Business Cycle and Health Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic. A Scandinavian Perspective 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Jensen, Malin C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;15/2023, Working paper, 2023-12-21)
      We use a unique daily economic activity measure and manually audited nonpharmaceutical intervention indexes for Norway and Sweden to model the dynamic interaction between COVID-19, policy, health, and business cycles within ...
    • Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;5/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We analyse if the adoption of a fiscal spending rule insulates the domestic economy from commodity price fluctuations in a resource-rich economy. To do so we develop a time-varying Dynamic Factor Model, in which we allow ...
    • Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy? 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zahiri, Sepideh Khayati (CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2016, Working paper, 2016)
      Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze ...
    • Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation 

      Alstadheim, Ragna; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;9/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? According to Lubik and Schorfheide (2007) who estimate structural general equilibrium models with monetary policy rules, the answer is "Yes, some do". However, their ...
    • Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation of Commodity Exporters and Importers 

      Alstadheim, Ragna; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;12/2020, Working paper, 2021-01-25)
      We analyse whether central banks in small open commodity exporting and importing countries respond to exchange rate movements, taking into consideration that there may be structural changes in parameters and volatility ...
    • Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts? 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gerdrup, Karsten; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMAR Working Paper Series;2/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. We recursively evaluate quasi out-of-sample forecasts from a large suite of models from 1999 to 2009. The performance of the models are then ...
    • The Drivers of Emission Reductions in the European Carbon Market 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Cross, Jamie L.; Kapfhammer, Felix (CAMP Working Paper Series;08/2023, Working paper, 2023-09-17)
      This paper studies the drivers of emission reductions in the carbon market of the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) since its inception in 2005. We introduce a novel empirical framework that facilitates the ...
    • Dutch Disease Dynamics Reconsidered 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;4, Working paper, 2018-02)
      In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the ...
    • The effect of rising energy prices amid geopolitical developments and supply disruptions 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C. (CAMP Working Paper Series;07/2022, Working paper, 2022-12)
      Much research has documented how changes in supply and demand cause commodity price fluctuations, with subsequent effects on the global economy. This paper puts the recent energy price surge in perspective amid geopolitical ...
    • Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Casarin, Roberto; Lorusso, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;13/2023, Working paper, 2023-10-21)
      We analyse fiscal policy in resource-rich economies using a novel Bayesian regime-switching panel model. The identified regimes capture pro- or countercyclical fiscal behaviour, while the switches between the regimes have ...
    • Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Papers Series;1/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. ...
    • House prices and stock prices: Different roles in the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Jacobsen, Dag Henning (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      We analyze the role of house and stock prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the U.S. using a structural VAR model. The VAR is identifed using a combination of short-run and long-run (neutrality) ...
    • How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Halvorsen, Jørn I. (CAMAR Working Paper Series;1/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      This paper analyzes how monetary policy has responded to exchange rate movements in six open economies, paying particular attention to the two-way interaction between monetary policy and the exchange rate. We address this ...
    • Is Monetary Policy Always Effective? Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-through in a DSGE Model 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Binning, Andrew; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;09/2019, Working paper, 2019-11)
      We estimate a regime-switching DSGE model with a banking sector to explain incomplete and asymmetric interest rate pass-through, especially in the presence of a binding zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint. The model is ...
    • Norges Bank Watch 2004 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Ekeli, Thomas; Geraats, Petra M.; Leitemo, Kai (Norges Bank Watch Report Series;, Research report, 2004)
      The main task of the committee has been to evaluate how well Norges Bank has fulfilled its monetary policy mandate given by the Norwegian Government on 29 March 2001. In particular, the committee has reviewed Norges ...
    • Norges Bank Watch 2010 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Clarida, Richard; Holvik, Elisabeth (Norges Bank Watch Report Series;, Research report, 2010)
      The international recession triggered by the financial crisis is often called “The Great Recession” because it is the deepest after World War II, and it did not turn into a full scale depression like in the 1930s. An ...
    • Norges Bank Watch 2011 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Wilhelmsen, Bjørn Roger (Norges Bank Watch report series;2011, Research report, 2011)
      Each year the Centre for Monetary Economics (CME) at The Department of Economics, BI Norwegian School of Management appoints an independent group of experts to evaluate monetary policy in Norway. The Ministry of Finance ...
    • Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard H. (CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2015, Working paper, 2015)
      We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a regime-switching structural model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in ...